🔹 SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
Tactical Call:Cautiously Bearish→ Technical Structure:
- Price rejected at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April drop
- Rejected upper Bollinger Band → short-term exhaustion
→ Momentum Indicators:
- MACD: Rolling over after recent bullish crossover → momentum weakening
- RSI: Flattening under 60 → upside pressure stalling
→ Outlook:
This looks like a fade setup, not a trend continuation — watching for a downside follow-through toward 540–535→ Trade Idea:
- Buy SPY $550 Put, Exp. May 24 (2–3 weeks) → Slightly OTM
🔹 USO (United States Oil Fund)
Tactical Call:Bearish→ Technical Structure:
- Clear lower highs and lower lows → trend remains bearish
- Price below all key moving averages
→ Momentum Indicators:
- MACD: Below zero, widening → strong downside trend
- RSI: Stuck under 50 → no bullish strength
→ Outlook:
Continued momentum suggests price could slide into the $61–62 zone→ Trade Idea:
- Buy USO $63 Put, Exp. ~May 21
- Strike near-the-money for best delta on continued weakness
🔹 GLD (Gold ETF)
Tactical Call:Bullish (With Caution Near Highs)→ Technical Structure:
- Uptrend remains intact → higher lows defending trend
- Minor consolidation near highs → healthy if it holds
→ Momentum Indicators:
- MACD: Still bullish but flattening → momentum slowing
- RSI: ~60 → healthy, not overbought
→ Volume:
- Accumulation visible on recent dips → bulls still active
→ Outlook:
Bias remains bullish unless price closes below $298→ Trade Idea:
- Buy GLD $305 Call, Exp. May 28 (3 weeks out)
🔹 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Tactical Call:Neutral to Cautiously Bullish→ Structure:
- Consolidating just below previous resistance → signs of accumulation phase
→ Momentum Indicators:
- MACD: Flattening, no bearish cross yet
- RSI: ~50 → neutral → market indecisive
→ Outlook:
If bulls defend $92K–$94K zone, a breakout toward $100K remains in play→ Bias:Bullish (Cautiously)
🔹 XRP (Ripple)
Tactical Call:Bearish→ Structure:
- Flat support base + lower highs = descending triangle risk
- Still lagging market recovery
→ Momentum Indicators:
- MACD: Below zero, weakening
- RSI: ~40 → weak, no divergence or reversal signs
→ Outlook:
Further downside risk if support breaks → potential move toward $0.48–$0.45→ Bias:Bearish