🔴 Macro Overview
- Energy: Oil futures surging on risk premium escalation. If Strait of Hormuz closes, $100–$130 oil likely.
- Equities: Stock futures sliding on geopolitical fear.
- Gold: Holding firm, acting as risk anchor.
Outlook: This geopolitical escalation may dominate market direction short-term. Any real action from Iran could further spike oil and damage equities.
📈 SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
- Trend: Sideways to weakening.
- Price: Hugging 18-day SMA, showing signs of breakdown.
- Bollinger Bands: Tightening → volatility compression.
- MACD: Just crossed bearish, flattening.
- RSI: Dropping from 60 → 50, signaling momentum loss.
- 🔹 CALL: Neutral to Bearish.
✅ Potential Trade: Put Debit Spread
- Buy SPY 590 Put / Sell SPY 570 Put
- Timeframe: 2–4 weeks
- Thesis: Slow drift lower toward support.
🔥 USO (Crude Oil ETF)
- Trend: Strong bullish breakout.
- Price: Broke above resistance on large volume.
- MACD: Bullish expansion phase.
- RSI: ~80, extended but holding.
- 🔹 CALL: Bullish.
✅ Potential Trade: Call Debit Spread
- Buy USO 82 Call / Sell USO 87 Call
- Timeframe: 1–3 weeks
- Thesis: Ride energy momentum; manage for overbought risk.
🔷 GLD (Gold ETF)
- Trend: Sideways consolidation within uptrend.
- Price: Holding 18-day SMA.
- MACD: Neutral, possible turn bullish.
- RSI: ~55, mid-range.
- Volume: Low, coiling setup.
- 🔹 CALL: Bullish with Caution.
✅ Potential Trade: Call Butterfly Spread
- Buy GLD 315 Call / Sell two 320 Calls / Buy 325 Call
- Thesis: Profits on breakout range move without chasing.
📉 Bitcoin (BTC)
- Trend: Bullish continuation, forming healthy base.
- Momentum: RSI ~60, MACD narrowing.
- Structure: Higher lows intact. Cup & handle forming.
- Volume: Stable, no blow-off signs.
- 🔹 CALL: BULLISH with Consolidation.
BTC remains constructive, healthy digestion phase. Watching for new momentum spark.
🔟 XRP
- Trend: Stabilizing above $2.00.
- Structure: Bull flag or range coil.
- RSI: ~55–60, neutral-to-bullish.
- MACD: Flat, no negative divergence.
- Volume: Thin = potential energy loading.
- 🔹 CALL: BULLISH BIAS (Watch $2.00 support).
If $2.00 holds, next impulse move likely targets $2.80–$3.00. Breakdown below $2 = caution required.
⚠️ Key Risk Monitor:
- Strait of Hormuz developments
- Energy price spikes
- Safe-haven flows into GLD, BTC
- Macro/fundamental response (Fed, oil reserves, etc.)