🔹 SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
Pattern Analysis:Rising Wedge → Bearish Reversal Risk→ Technical Setup:
- Rising Wedge forming since mid-April — classic reversal pattern
- Volume: Declining on each leg higher → bearish divergence
- RSI: Just above 60 but stalling at resistance → momentum fading
- MACD: Still bullish crossover, but histogram is flattening → early loss of momentum
- Bollinger Bands: Price pushing upward but on low conviction
→ Outlook:
This is a bearish setup inside a corrective rally — the wedge is nearing a decision point→ Bias:Bearish (Short-Term)→ Trade Ideas:
- 🔻 Primary Setup:
- Buy SPY $560 Put, Exp. May 24–31
- ⚖️ Alternative (Spread):
- Buy $565 Put / Sell $550 Put (Bear Put Spread)
- ✅ Invalidation (If bullish breakout):
- Buy SPY $580 Call — only if wedge fails to break down
→ Final Call:
Bearish — Rising wedge + weak volume + RSI stall = trap is set
🔹 USO (United States Oil Fund)
Trend: Downtrend Intact→ Technical Setup:
- Riding lower Bollinger Band, failing to reclaim midline = bearish continuation
- MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed
- RSI: Weak bounce off oversold, barely at 40
- Structure: Lower highs, lower lows → trend remains down
→ Bias:Bearish→ Trade Idea:
- Buy USO $64 Put, Exp. May 24–31
🔹 GLD (Gold ETF)
Technical Call: Bullish Continuation (Healthy Consolidation)→ Trend: Strong uptrend → current pullback = bull flag pattern
→ Bollinger Bands: From upper band to midline → controlled reset
→ MACD: Cooling but remains positive
→ RSI: Above 50 → healthy correction, not reversal→ Bias:Bullish→ Trade Idea:
- Buy GLD $310 Call, Exp. May 31–June 7
🔹 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Call:Bullish – Momentum Building→ Macro Tailwind:
- Rate pressure & fiat debasement → increasing demand for store-of-value assets
→ Price Action: - Holding structure above recent support → prepping for breakout
→ Bias:Bullish
- Next breakout level: ~$96K
- Trend remains intact — accumulation zone holding firm
🔹 XRP (Ripple)
Call:Neutral to Slightly Bullish – Coiling for Movement→ Structure:
- Coiling tighter → could be gearing for breakout attempt
- Still lagging BTC but showing first signs of participation
→ Momentum:
- MACD still sluggish but flattening
- RSI beginning to lift from ~40
→ Bias:Neutral → Slightly Bullish
- Catalyst pending — no volume burst yet, but structure improving
→ Metaphor:
- BTC = 🦁 charging lion
- XRP = 🐍 coiled serpent beginning to stir